燃数科技受邀出席摩根士丹利中国投资峰会

发表时间:2025-09-23 09:27作者:燃数科技

燃数科技的合伙人蔡川先生于8月28日至8月29日受邀参加摩根士丹利在深圳主办的中国投资峰会(Morgan Stanley China BEST Conference),通过主题演讲及一对一会议向机构投资者分享了最新的行业洞察。


以下为演讲中部分亮点内容节选,涵盖即时配送、国补政策、奢侈品与潮玩(Alt-data Insights on On-demand Delivery, Trade-in Policy, Luxury and Trendy Collectibles)领域。


节选内容1

即时配送(On-demand Delivery)

美团和京东在即时配送领域的市场份额出现下滑,阿里巴巴则实现增长。

Meituan and JD lost share in on-demand delivery segment, while BABA gained.


在外卖大战期间,冷藏预制食品出现了明显的放缓,可见近期的外卖单量提升并非全部来自增量需求。

Amid the food delivery battle, Chilled Prepared Food segment saw a notable slowdown,indicating that the recent increase in food delivery orders was not entirely driven by incremental demand.


节选内容2

国补政策(Trade-in Policy

补贴带动了家电和3C,但节奏有所不同:家电复苏较早且增长动能稳定,而3C的增长周期相对较短。

Subsidies lifted both home appliances and 3C, though with different rhythms; appliances recovered earlier with stable growth momentum, while 3C growth was short-lived.


在家电板块中,尽管参与补贴的SKU仅占供应的一小部分,但在京东和天猫的GMV增长中却贡献了显著的份额。

In home appliances segment, subsidized SKUs contributed a significant and rising share of GMV growth on JD/Tmall, despite accounting for only a small portion of supply.


节选内容3

奢侈品(Luxury)

奢侈品市场7月呈现季节性疲软,各品牌表现分化,行业整体复苏步伐仍较缓慢。其中LVMH在7月表现出明显加速,主要由路易威登品牌带动,而其复苏主要得益于更高的客单价(ATV)。

July's seasonal softness revealed divergent performance among top-tier luxury brands, while sector-wide recovery remained subdued; LVMH demonstrated material acceleration in July, led by Louis Vuitton brand, where recovery was primarily driven by higher ATV.


节选内容4

潮玩(Trendy Collectibles)

潮玩品牌线上销售表现不一;泡泡玛特在7月国内外市场均保持强劲增长势头。泡泡玛特小程序的日活跃用户数(DAU)同比大幅增长,并与公司披露的线上扭蛋抽盒收入高度相关。

Trendy Collectible names diverged in online performance; Pop Mart mini program DAU grew strongly Y/Y, which closely correlated with Online pop draw revenue reported by the company.


“Monsters”系列在台湾、东南亚和巴西拥有坚实的基础,而“Crybaby”则在这三个地区引领增长。

The Monsters series has a solid foundation in Taiwan, Southeast Asia and Brazil, while Crybaby is leading growth across all three regions.


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